The U-turn by a desperate regime could exacerbate its downfall

The fast-developing events in Bahrain have taken many by surprise, not least, those who had supported the Al Khalifa. As the sage of the “plotters” and “traitors” unfolded, disillusionment amongst them left unmistakable signs not only on their faces, but also in their psyche and minds.

 How could these “criminal” against whom complaints were made to the United Nations Security Council, the Arab League and the Gulf Cooperation Council, be so swiftly released before their trial ended? If they had really plotted such heinous crimes, who would blame the Al Khalifa for sentencing each of them to life imprisonment, if not execution? Or was the whole episode a fantasy created by a desperate regime which felt that the waves were not going its own way? It is now clear that the trial session held on Tuesday 24th March 2009 had sealed their fate for release.

The Al Khalifa were so badly defeated at that session that any further court appearances could lead to its international condemnation. The session was attended by international lawyers and human rights activists. Mr Hassan Mushaime, the “chief suspect” made the most of that session when he started to question the legality of the whole process, affirming the repressive nature of the regime and expressing his determination to stay behind bars as long as the liberation of his people needed. Then came the chance for some of the Bahraini hostages to speak. As details of the horrific treatment became clear, the ruler and his advisers were convinced that any subsequent trials could drag senior members of the Al Khlaifa family to testify to their role in torture. That would have brought the collapse of the regime several steps nearer. They took an immediate decision that is was safer for the Al Khlaifa dictatorship to make a U-turn than to see its members dragged by the Interpol to attend sessions at the International Criminal Court.

They were already shaking as the news that the office of Moreno Okampo, the ICC Prosecutor General, had received the first claims against Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa and three of his lieutenants for crimes against humanity. That process in itself was humiliating enough to a regime that had plundered the wealth of a nation on promoting its image, distorting the facts and promising hollow democracy to a revolutionary generation.

According to those lawyers, it became clear that the regime had no case at all. Infact, the letter of the UK Minister for Foreign Affairs, Bill Rammell, in March had already caused the Al Khalifa enormous damage. In his reply to Lord Avebury, Mr Rammell said, in no ambiguous terms, that the Al Khalifa had violated their international commitments by parading their victims on TV screens, allegedly “confessing” their crimes. Those crimes were later ignored as it became clear to the international lawyers that they had been fabricated and the victims had been subjected to a good deal of torture. The Al Khalifa “judge” was seen as a foe, a prosecutor and plaintiff, in clear violation of the most basic principles of justice. He was taken aback as the tails of the horrific torture endured by the victims started to accumulate in the presence of those foreign “unwelcome guests”.

He immediately ordered the adjournment of the trial until 28th April. He gave himself and his family enough time to reconsider their position. It rained down on them that the safest option would be to swallow their pride, order the victims out of their torture chambers and stave off a potential storm.

The ruler did not take long to follow the “advice”. In a sudden turn of events he ordered the unconditional release of most of the political prisoners without explanation. For the opposition, it was a news they had known earlier would come soon. They had relentlessly campaigned against this blatant oppression by the regime and would accept nothing less than a total submission by the hereditary dictatorship. This time they got what they wanted. Since the release of the pro-democracy activists, led by Mr Mushaime, they have become more blatant in their moves. They now plan what one of them said “to shake the earth under their feet” by dragging the torturers and the proponents of torture to the international justice. In the past few years they have built an international base of friendship and support that will enable them to process their writs against the criminals with relative ease. It is also reported that a state of confusion has spread within the ruling hierarchy as many of their allies, inside and outside Bahrain, became astounded by the downturn of events.

The Formula1 races may have been a factor in taking the decision to release the torture victims, but it was also the will of some those prisoners who had refused to plea for pardon and those in the opposition outside the torture chambers that has contributed to the demoralization of the ruling junta. The struggle of the Bahraini people may have now entered a new phase. There is enthusiasm for a more serious change in the political regime in these troubled Gulf islands. The opposition has been emboldened enough to question the legitimacy of the Al Khalifa family, something they did not have the courage to express in previous episodes of the struggle. They are now openly calling the Al Khalifa rule “an occupation” and comparing it with the Israeli occupation of Palestine. They are demanding that some senior members of the ruling family be tried for crimes against humanity.

The various political bodies established by the ruling family in accordance with its 2002 constitution have failed to stave off the rising opposition which has engulfed the entire country in the past few weeks. The Al Khalifa re in an unenviable position as they struggle to look for legitimacy in people who, themselves, have lost the right to represent the people, and many of whom, have become immersed in the endemic financial and political corruption. It may be said safely that the next few months will be crucial in determining the direction of events not only in Bahrain, but also in other neighbouring Gulf states. With democratic institutions around the Gulf shores, it will not be long before change takes place along the Western shores of the Gulf. The West may still have some time to take its hands off these backward regimes. If it fails to do so, it will be yet another loser in the battle for change in the most strategic region in the world.

Bahrain Freedom Movement
1st May 2009